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Black Belt Magazine

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Dangers of Force Prediction
Black Belt Magazine, August 2004
By Richard Ryan

 

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It has long been recognized that attack by combination, or unleashing a barrage of blows designed to overwhelm your opponent, is an effective way of righting, the author says.

One of the first rules of the street is that “he who hits first, fastest and the most, almost always wins.” If you are hitting the attacker, he is usually not hitting you. Most often he is either defending himself or getting hit. Attack by combination is one of the most effective tactics in combat. The idea is to swarm the opponent with a series of strikes executed rapid-fire and overwhelm his defenses. In most situations this is the essence of effective force delivery because it forces the opponent to go on the defensive or risk being clobbered in the process.

But there is a difference between fluid, response-based combinations and the preordained sequential techniques used in some martial arts. I have to say that any series of techniques executed with speed, power and precision can be effective and such responses are certainly better than the “strike and pause method.” But some martial arts take sequential action too far and, in doing so, step outside the boundaries of reality. Everyone has seen the devastating swarm wrought the demonstration of such techniques. You know the drill, an opponent throws a half-hearted punch and leaves it dangling out there so the master can intercept it, catching the poor fellow in an endless array of strikes, grabs, breaks, traps, sweeps, throws and manipulations all before the hapless aggressor can pull his fist back (or hit him with his other hand).

The realities of reaction, speed and timing aside, the concept of this swarm attack is good. They take a shot at you and before they can throw another they’re hit fifteen times. Tactically the only thing better than that is to hit them first. If you can do either of these consistantly I have no problem it. What I do have a problem with, are complex patterns of movement that are predicated on predictions of exactly how an opponent will react to each individual action.

For example, opponent A throws a straight punch to defender B’s head. Mr. B intercepts the attack by grapping the fist and countering with a palm strike to the forehead sending Mr. A’s head snapping back and exposing his throat for a perfect side palm strike. Mr. B then follows with a front kick to his stomach, which dramatically doubles him over and puts him in a great position for the dropping elbow to the 13th vertebrae and on and on ad infinitum.

What’s wrong with that some of you may ask? The techniques are fluid and logical. Well they may be, but they are also wholly unrealistic starting with the fact that you’ll never actually catch a decent punch mid-strike, let alone control it with a grab or a clamp while the opponent sits idly by and lets you strike him over and over again at will. Just having opponent A throw a combination of his own will likely find both of you exchanging blows like Dolph Lungren and Sylvester Stallone in "Rocky IV."

But let's say you’re a much better martial artist than I am and can pull that one off. How do you know the palm strike to the forehead will send his head rocketing back so you can conveniently smash his throat? Whether or not that happens has to do with numerous factors outside of your control – such as neck and trap size and strength, the exact trajectory of you line of force, the specific point of impact etc. – all of which are subject to change with even the slightest movement on the opponent’s part. Such a blow may hurt a strong fighter who tucks his chin but it is highly unlikely that they will allow their head to be rocketed back to expose their chin and throat to follow-up. I call this the idea "force prediction." The concept that if you do this the opponent will always do that.

Not true.

People simply do not automatically react the same way every time to every attack. Take Mohammad Ali for instance. Could any of his opponents ever say with any certainty how Mohammad would move every time? I don’t think so. Ali was nothing if not cunning and deceptive. He could slip, dodge and snap back from any punch or combination as well as he could stand his ground and slug it out if he had to. Great fighters don’t predict – they react. They train themselves to be able to respond to the ebb and flow of the chaos of combat without attempting to execute any complex predetermined response patterns. They know that fifty percent of the fight is out of there control and that if they guess at what will happen the odds are that they will be right only fifty percent of the time and being wrong half the time is not a good way to keep your head on your shoulders.

In boxing, they don’t teach you dozens of strikes, or try to preprogram complex response patterns. Why? Because they know such things don’t work. They strive to keep it simple, opting instead to teach only jabs, crosses, uppercuts and hooks (with slight variations on the theme). Four strikes, that’s it. Then they teach you to put them together offensively and counter-offensively based on reacting to what an opponent is doing (or not doing) in the ring. Reaction based response-training works. Force prediction and complex response patterns do not. It’s that simple.

So the next you find yourself learning that ten step counter to a back fist perhaps you had better think twice if your goal is to learn how to fight in the real world if you have to. Or better yet, like I am always fond of saying, “just test it.” Put on as little protective gear as you can and still stay completely safe, and go at it full force and see if it works the way you think it will. There is no substitute for reality testing. I would bet my last dollar that any complex response pattern will only find you pummeled and bruised for trying it. In my humble opinion your time would be better spend in simple, reaction-based drills or just working things out in various forms of free sparring. See you in the real world.

About the author: Richard Ryan is the founder of Dynamic Combat™ and the designer of the Tactical Defense Training™ system for law enforcement. He has more than 30 years of experience in martial arts, combative firearms and weapons training. For more information, call (800) 945-4387.

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